NFL Touchdown Props: How to Pick First, Last and Anytime Scorers
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I placed my first touchdown scorer bet in 2014, backing a fullback at 20.00 who had scored exactly once all season. He punched one in from the goal line in the second quarter, and I spent the rest of the afternoon convinced I had cracked the code. I hadn’t. What I had done was get lucky, and it took me the next two seasons of losing TD props to learn that this market rewards patience and research more than any gut feeling.
Touchdown props are the most popular player specials in NFL betting for good reason – they’re simple to understand, they pay well, and every fan has an opinion on who will cross the end zone. But the gap between placing a TD bet and placing a good TD bet is enormous. Around 40% of first touchdowns in the Super Bowl historically come from passing plays, and that kind of structural data matters far more than which player “feels due” for a score. This guide breaks down the three main TD markets, explains the red zone data that should drive your picks, and shows where real value hides in these lines.
Anytime, First and Last Scorer: How Each Market Differs
The first season I started tracking my TD bets seriously, I lumped them all together – anytime, first scorer, last scorer – as if they were variations of the same wager. They’re not. Each market prices risk differently, rewards different research, and attracts different kinds of sharp action.
Anytime touchdown scorer is the broadest market. You’re backing a player to score at any point during the game, regardless of when or how. The odds are shorter because the probability window is wide – a running back who touches the ball 20 times has multiple opportunities to find the end zone. This market is where most punters start, and it’s also where bookmakers set their tightest lines because the volume of bets is highest. If you’re backing a high-usage player at 1.50, you’re essentially paying a premium for probability that the book has already priced efficiently.
First touchdown scorer is a different animal entirely. Here, you’re not just predicting who scores – you’re predicting who scores before anyone else. That narrows the probability dramatically. A player who scores in 45% of games might only score first in 8-10% of them. The odds reflect this: first scorer prices typically sit between 7.00 and 15.00 for skill position players, and north of 20.00 for lower-usage targets. The variance is brutal, but the payouts compensate – if your analysis is sharper than the market’s.
Last touchdown scorer gets the least attention from both punters and analysts, and that’s precisely why I find it interesting. The last TD in a game is often determined by garbage time – a trailing team throwing into prevent defence, or a backup running back grinding out clock. The market is thinner, the lines are softer, and the players who benefit from late-game scripts are frequently underpriced. I’ve found consistent edges backing slot receivers and pass-catching backs in the last scorer market, because these are the players who see targets when trailing teams abandon the run.
The structural takeaway: anytime scorer rewards volume and usage, first scorer rewards scoring opportunity and play-calling tendencies on opening drives, and last scorer rewards game script awareness. Treating them as interchangeable is a mistake I see punters make every week.
Red Zone Usage Rates and Touchdown Probability
A mate of mine spent an entire 2023 season backing the “most talented” skill players for touchdown props without once checking red zone data. He backed speedy deep threats and contested-catch receivers – players who racked up yards between the 20s but rarely saw targets inside the 10. His TD hit rate was dismal. The lesson was expensive but clear: yards don’t score touchdowns. Red zone usage does.
Red zone target share is the single most predictive metric for anytime touchdown scorer outcomes. When an offence crosses the opponent’s 20-yard line, the field compresses. Routes shorten. Running lanes narrow. The players who get the ball in this condensed space are not always the players who dominate the stat sheet in open field. A tight end who runs short crossers and corner routes inside the red zone might have 40% of his team’s red zone targets while ranking fourth in overall receiving yards. That tight end is a far better TD prop candidate than the outside receiver who has twice the yardage but sees only 15% of red zone looks.
For rushing touchdowns, the calculus is slightly different but equally data-driven. Goal-line carries – touches inside the 5-yard line – are the metric that matters. Some teams split this work between a primary back and a short-yardage specialist. Others feed one bellcow regardless of distance. Knowing which approach your target team uses is the difference between backing a player who gets 60% of goal-line carries and one who gets pulled for a bigger back when the offence smells the end zone.
About 40% of first touchdowns in the Super Bowl historically come from passing plays, which tells you something about how offences script their early drives in high-stakes games. But in the regular season, the split varies significantly by team and by week. Run-heavy teams like the ones built around dual-threat quarterbacks often score their first TD on the ground, while pass-first offences with elite tight ends tend to target the seam route inside the 10. Pulling up advanced analytics like EPA and target share data for red zone possessions specifically – not full-game stats – is how I build my TD prop shortlists each week.
One more nuance: red zone efficiency changes across a season. Teams that convert 70% of red zone trips into touchdowns in September often regress toward the league average of roughly 55-58% by December. If you’re still pricing a team’s TD props based on early-season conversion rates, you’re working with stale data. I refresh my red zone numbers every three weeks during the season.
Finding Value in Touchdown Prop Markets
Value in touchdown props doesn’t come from picking the “right” player. It comes from finding the player whose price doesn’t reflect their actual scoring probability. I learned this distinction the hard way, spending two full seasons backing obvious choices – the league’s leading rushers, the top-scoring wide receivers – and wondering why my returns were mediocre. The answer was simple: everyone else was backing them too, and the lines were priced accordingly.
The edges live in the margins. Dimers’ model, which runs 10,000 simulations per game, has shown that NFL receptions bets in specific edge ranges have returned 6.6% profit across 93 similar wagers – and TD props with comparable edge profiles behave the same way. The principle is straightforward: when your estimated probability of a player scoring exceeds the implied probability baked into the odds by a meaningful margin, you have a value bet. When it doesn’t, you’re paying the bookmaker’s tax for the privilege of entertainment.
Three specific angles consistently produce mispriced TD lines in my experience. First, backup running backs whose starter has a nagging injury designation. The market often underestimates how much goal-line work shifts to the backup when a lead back is limited in practice – the price on the backup stays too long at 4.00 or 5.00 while the starter’s TD line barely moves. Second, tight ends facing teams that rank poorly in red zone coverage against the position. Tight end TD props are among the least efficient markets because casual punters overwhelmingly bet on wide receivers and running backs, leaving tight end lines softer. Third, players returning from bye weeks. Teams coming off rest historically score at slightly higher rates, and the players who were banged up before the bye often see increased red zone usage in the game after it.
One discipline that separates profitable TD bettors from the rest: tracking your expected hit rate against your actual hit rate over a full season. If you’re betting anytime TD props at an average implied probability of 35% and your selections are hitting at 32%, you’re losing – even if individual big winners feel satisfying. The NFL prop market is efficient enough that a 3% edge, sustained across 100+ bets, is a genuine achievement. Anything less, and you’re either break-even or slowly bleeding units.
The market is beatable, but only with discipline, data, and an honest assessment of where you’re finding – or failing to find – genuine edges.
How does red zone target share affect anytime touchdown scorer odds?
Red zone target share is the strongest predictor of touchdown scoring probability. A player who receives 30-40% of their team’s targets inside the 20-yard line has a significantly higher chance of scoring than a player with more overall yards but fewer red zone looks. Bookmakers factor this in, but casual punters often overlook it, creating value on high red zone usage players whose names aren’t in the headlines.
Is it better to back a running back or wide receiver for first touchdown?
Running backs historically hit first touchdown scorer bets at a slightly higher rate in the regular season because of goal-line carry volume. However, in high-stakes games and pass-first offences, wide receivers and tight ends score first more often – around 40% of Super Bowl first touchdowns have come from passing plays. The best approach is to check the team’s scripted opening drive tendencies rather than defaulting to a position.
Do tight ends offer value in anytime scorer markets?
Tight ends are consistently among the most underpriced positions in anytime touchdown markets. Casual bettors gravitate toward running backs and wide receivers, leaving tight end lines softer. If a tight end commands 25%+ of their team’s red zone targets and faces a defence that struggles to cover the position inside the 20, the value is often better than backing a higher-profile skill player at shorter odds.
Written by the editors at top nfl Prop Bets.
